The sudden collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime on Sunday marked a historic turning point in Syria’s civil war, ending over five decades of Assad family rule. The fall of Damascus to rebel forces, following the swift captures of Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, has reshaped the political and military landscape of Syria and reverberated across the region. Yet, while many Syrians celebrate the end of a repressive dictatorship, the question of what follows looms ominously.

The Assad regime’s downfall seemed unthinkable even a week ago. For years, Mr Assad, backed by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, had clung to power, using brutal force to suppress dissent and crush rebel opposition. But the tide shifted dramatically with the rebels’ latest offensive, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Exploiting the withdrawal of Russian air support and the overstretched resources of Hezbollah, the rebels advanced rapidly, isolating the regime’s strongholds. Damascus, long a symbol of Mr Assad’s authority, fell in hours. The deposed President’s flight to an unknown destination underscores the fragility of his grip on power in recent months. The regional implications of Mr Assad’s ousting are profound.

For Iran, the loss of its key ally in Syria dismantles the strategic corridor connecting Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon, undermining the so-called Axis of Resistance. Hezbollah itself, weakened by its protracted war with Israel and diminished support from Damascus, now faces an uncertain future. Meanwhile, Turkey, widely suspected of tacitly backing the rebels, emerges as a pivotal player. Yet, Ankara’s role could exacerbate tensions, particularly if its interests clash with those of other regional actors. The humanitarian challenges are immense.

Years of civil war have left Syria shattered, with millions displaced and critical infrastructure destroyed. In the wake of the regime’s collapse, a power vacuum threatens to deepen instability. The rebel HTS, despite its efforts to rebrand itself as a nationalist force, remains rooted in a violent past that raises fears about its governance. Ethnic and religious minorities, many of whom suffered under both Mr Assad and extremist factions, face an uncertain future.

The international community must prioritise aid and security to prevent further suffering and chaos. Globally, Mr Assad’s ouster reshuffles alliances. Israel, which views Iran as an existential threat, welcomes the weakening of Tehran’s influence. The United States and European powers must navigate a delicate balance, supporting stabilisation efforts without empowering extremist factions. Russia’s retreat, compelled by its focus on Ukraine, highlights the limits of its ambitions in West Asia.

The fall of Mr Assad offers an opportunity for Syria to rebuild, but it also brings enormous risks. The fragmented opposition, a mix of moderate and hardline groups, must now transition from military success to effective governance — a daunting task that will determine Syria’s future. Whether the country descends into further chaos or begins a slow journey toward peace will depend on the collective resolve of Syrians.